Decarbonizing the Aviation Sector- Making Net Zero Aviation Possible⁠↗

Hydrogen aircraft could enter the market in the 2030s and scale up through 2050, when they could account for roughly a third of aviation’s energy demand. With current aircraft designs, hydrogen aircraft could be range limited to up to 2,500 kilometers. Redesigning airframes and storage technology might unlock longer ranges without reducing the number of available seats. If hydrogen aircraft enter the market around 2035 and achieve longer ranges, they could gain a market share of up to one third by 2050. The estimated market share drops to 13 percent by 2050 if they enter the market by 2040 and only achieve shorter ranges. Assuming breakthroughs in battery chemistries, battery-electric aircraft could potentially power regional aircraft on flights up to about 1,000 km by mid-century.