An Asteroid Stands a Chance at Impacting Earth. Are We Prepared⁠↗

What are you doing in 2032? Whatever it is, you’d best be looking up — because on December 22nd, an asteroid will streak through the night sky, making a very close flyby of the planet. At least, that’s what’s most likely to happen. But based on the current crop of observations, NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS — whose scientists keep watch over all known near-Earth asteroids and comets — estimates that there is a 1.9 percent chance of that space rock smashing into Earth that day.

In crude terms, an asteroid that doubles in size brings eight times more kinetic energy with it when it slams into the atmosphere. Here’s an example. An asteroid 60 feet across will crash into Earth’s atmosphere, decelerate dramatically, and explode in mid-air, unleashing an explosion equivalent to a small nuclear weapon. It won’t make a crater, it won’t even make a fireball, but the blast wave will slam into the ground and cause widespread damage to buildings. Now double that asteroid’s size. At 120 feet across, the rocky missile still won’t make it to the ground, nor will it carve out a crater, but the blast wave will be comparable to one produced by a far larger nuclear weapon. Structures can be knocked down, people can be blown off their feet, and anyone in the blast radius stands a good chance of dying.